If four separate sensors register shaking, the systemвЂ™s algorithms assume it is a real event, rather than a false positive caused by a hypothetical truck collision with a sensor or other non-quake vibrations, explained Bob de Groot, USGS ShakeAlert national coordinator for communication, education, outreach and technical engagement.ДЄlgorithms then estimate the scope, location and severity of the earthquakeвЂ™s shaking. It uses a network of seismic sensors to detect and evaluate the first vibrations of an earthquake (known as primary waves, or P waves) then relay their readings to a data center. USGS offers an early detection system in California, Oregon and Washington known as ShakeAlert. Researchers and city agencies seeking to minimize quake damage are instead focused on detecting, and responding to, the first signs of a quake as rapidly as possible. Geological Survey (USGS) stresses that accurate earthquake predictions are impossible now and in the вЂњforeseeable future,вЂќ with scientists able, at best, to give the probability of a significant quake hitting an area вЂњwithin a certain number of years.вЂќ Responders identifying inaccessible areas would also know to call for help from neighboring jurisdictions that may have easier access.Д®arthquakes arenвЂ™t as easily - or feasibly - predicted as floods, however. Has fallen, within the next few hours, what can we expect from this creek as far as flooding is concerned? The further you go out, the riskier it gets.The idea is to inform emergency responders quickly so they can route around submerged bridges and roadways when rushing to help, rather than being forced to backtrack. вЂњWe want to know вЂ¦ now that the rain has fallen, within the next few hours, what can we expect from this creek as far as flooding is concerned? The further you go out, the riskier it gets.вЂќ вЂњWe can get up to 12 hours pretty accurately, and itвЂ™ll go out to 24 hours thatвЂ™s our maximum prediction horizon,вЂќ Tschirhart said.

To ensure the system stays accurate, SARA compares its estimates against on-the-ground readings it pulls every 10 minutes from water gauges placed at high-risk areas like dams and low-water crossings.Дisaster responders need to balance a desire for early alerts against their need for accuracy. SARA uses data from the National Weather ServiceвЂ™s forecasting products to inform its model. SARA sought to supplement those services with its own, locally focused projections that it reruns every 15 minutes, giving a picture as close to вЂњreal timeвЂќ as possible. In Bexar County, Texas, where the tool is currently deployed, rainfall can turn into a full-fledged flood within two hours, but the National Weather Service only updates its predictive models twice a day, meaning a flood could come and go before a new alert is out. The San Antonio River Authority (SARA) uses a tool to predict floods 12 hours in advance and inform emergency responders, its senior technical engineer Wayne Tschirhart told GovTech*. Tarek Ghani, assistant professor of strategy at Washington UniversityвЂ™s Olin Business School, and Grant Gordon, former senior director of innovation strategy at the International Rescue Committee, envision using AI to predict disasters in advance, thus enabling responders to take swifter actions to prevent or mitigate them.

As artificial intelligence (AI) advances, sensors proliferate and data collections grow, prediction and detection technologies are likely to become more precise and effective. TodayвЂ™s tools are warning residents, triggering mitigation and helping first responders react more effectively. Prediction and early detection tools - as well as automated responses - aim to help local governments reduce the damages of these kinds of natural disasters. Earthquakes shaking the Pacific Northwest risk derailing trains, injuring residents and causing power outages at hospitals. Floods in TexasвЂ™ San Antonio River basin spill across highways, blocking emergency responders, and Norfolk, Va., sees homes inundated by coastal storms. When fires start in Gilpin County, Colo., they burn hot and grow fast.

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